In-game bet analytics. Who to take, and when.
A football game re-prices itself every drive. The side you wanted at kickoff comes back at a better number in the second quarter; the total that looked fair at the half is wrong by the fourth; a receiver’s live line lags his pace. We read every game state against thousands of comparable ones and tell you which side, which total, which player, at which moment, at what number. Not before the game. During it.
every pick answers four questions
Which side. Which total. Which player. Which moment.
The spread and the moneyline
The team to take and the number to take it at — usually a side that fell behind and came back cheaper than the game justifies, sometimes a favorite the market gave up on too early.
Over or under, from the pace
Points still to come against points still needed, conditioned on the game that was priced before kickoff. A total is wrong most often in the third and fourth quarters.
Player yards and receptions
Live box score every 60 seconds against the live line. Passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions. The strongest arm we have, because nobody is racing us on it.
Any quarter, never before kickoff
Picks fire whenever the state says so: second quarter comebacks, halftime totals, fourth-quarter finishes. The late ones return most; the early ones are where the volume is.
when picks fire · four seasons of live prices
The right side changes during the game. We say when.
Comebacks priced
A favorite down ten in the second quarter is not a coin flip. The number says it is.
Totals re-read
Two quarters of pace against a number set by a pregame model.
Props catch up late
Live prop lines lag the box score. Pace wins here.
Strongest, smallest
Every point of a late number is worth more. The best return per pick, the fewest picks.
what it has returned · held out by season, at posted prices
Built on twenty-five seasons of play-by-play and four seasons of in-game prices, tested the way a trading desk tests a model: out of sample, season by season, against controls, with the losers counted. Roughly 45% of positions lose. What we sell is a small, measured edge taken many times at a size you survive. What we do not publish is how.
the ledger · timestamped before you see it
Graded in public, once there is enough to grade.
Every pick is written to an append-only file with a UTC timestamp before anyone sees it and graded at the posted price. Results publish once 100 positions are graded — a rule set on 2026-09-23, before any result existed, that does not move. Ledger open since 2026-09-21: 11 / 100 graded. The record →
on every pick
What you get.
The side, the number, the moment
TB +1.5 at 6:41 in the second. Evans over 58.5 with 17 minutes left. Never a list of odds to sort through.
Our probability, and the market’s
Ours, with its error bar; theirs, de-vigged. When we say 60% it happens about 60% of the time, and you can check that on your own ledger.
A grade with a citation
A, B or C by the evidence behind that kind of pick — the held-out return and its interval — not by how it feels.
A stake, and one position
Proportional to the edge, capped at three units. When the number moves you get an update. You never get a second ticket.
Delivered to the book you hold
Tell us which books you have. Picks arrive by push, SMS and email with the number at your book — and a fill log so your own record is measured at the price you actually got, not the one we saw.
coverage · NFL live now
Every in-play spread, moneyline, total and player prop
Props: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions. Six regulated books: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics.
Each sport is added when its own record clears the same bar. Not before.
membership
Pick a tier.
- — Every live pick as it is made: side, number, moment, probability, grade, stake, why
- — Email, SMS and push
- — Your ledger and statement
- — NFL, six books, all markets
- — Everything in Member
- — The full board on every game: every market, every verdict, as it moves
- — Member API and live stream
- — Three seats
What we will not sell you. No locks. No guaranteed profit. No linked accounts — we never place, and we never see, your bets. A small, measured edge, taken many times, at a size you can survive.