six numbers, one rule

How to read a live betting pick

NFLPIT @ CINQ3A
Pittsburgh +7.5
BetMGM −118GRADE ASTAKE 1u14s left

The side and the number. Exactly what to bet, at which book. When several books post the same number, the one shown has the best price.

The book and the price. The sportsbook and the price we sent, written to the public record before members see it. The record is graded at that price.

The grade. How much we trust this kind of pick. A = our strongest kind of pick; B = a good pick with a shorter record behind it; C = a smaller, more speculative play.

STAKE. One unit, flat, on every pick. One unit is the share of bankroll you set on the Account page; the bankroll guide below suggests 0.5–1%. The public record is graded at a flat one unit on every pick.

The kind of pick. Most picks are priced at even money or shorter; those are our main picks and they lead the record. A pick priced above even money is marked Plus-money play: it wins less often and pays more when it does. A Fast-number play is a number that tends to move fast: take it right away or skip it. Each kind has its own line on the record page.

The clock. Some picks carry an expiry: the number is only expected to stay up for a short time. Late is not a discount; late is gone. Picks without a clock are good until the number moves.

The rule. One position per market per game. When the number moves after you are in, you get an update on the pick — not a second ticket. A live number usually gets better because the game is going against you, so we don’t press it. Hedging and middling are vig. Bet flat; don’t hedge.

Log it. Every bet you place, log the price you got and how long it took. Your ledger grades against your own fills; the gap between your table and ours on the Performance page is your obtainability — and it is the number that turns our returns into yours.

BANKROLL GUIDE
  • One unit = 0.5–1% of your bankroll.
  • Bet every pick flat at one unit.
  • Never bet more on a pick that feels certain. Bigger bets on “sure things” are how bankrolls go to zero.
  • Expect losing days; the record is built over hundreds of picks.
UNIT AT 0.5%—
UNIT AT 1%—
Enter your bankroll to see a unit.
21+. No pick is a guarantee — you can lose money. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

To the desk → · The public record · Past seasons, simulated ↓

BEFORE THE SEASON · PAST SEASONS, SIMULATEDFLAT 1u · REAL POSTED PRICES

Tested on games it had not seen.

This section replays past seasons (simulated), not the live record. What has happened since the season began is on the public record, and it is the number to judge us by.

Each season was graded only on games the picks had not seen. One position per game and market, at the price actually posted. Sides and totals 2022–25; player props 2023–25.

POSITIONS
4,729
2,444 BOARD · 2,285 PROPS
WR
56.1%
HOW OFTEN THE SIDE WE SENT WON
AVG RETURN / POSITION
+10.9%
AVG LOSS −1.00u BY CONSTRUCTION
NET
+516u
FLAT 1u
PROPS VS RANDOM
+13.8%
RANDOM PICK, SAME BOARD: −5.5%
CUMULATIVE UNITS · ALL 4,729 POSITIONS · IN TIME ORDERFROM THE SIMULATED POSITION LOG
+516.0u+$51,598 at $100/unitALL 4,729 POSITIONS · HOVER THE CHART
#4,729 · 2025SpreadLOST −1.00u
20222023 · PROPS ADDED20242025
RED · DISTANCE BELOW PREVIOUS HIGH · POSITIONS IN THE ORDER THEY WERE PRICED, SO THE DRAWDOWN IS EXACT · WORST −36.1u
56.1%
WR across 4,729 positions.
WR = HOW OFTEN THE SIDE WE SENT WON

Props are the strongest market: 57.9% and +13.8% per position, where a random pick from the same board loses 5.5%. Prop overs alone hit 60.2%. On grade A and B picks only, which leaves out plus-money underdogs, the hit rate is 59.1% across 3,982 positions.

BY MARKET
MARKETNHITRETURNNETAVG WINAVG PRICE
Spread92755.5%+9.8%+91u0.98u−38
Moneyline48350.2%+10.3%+50u1.20u+58
Total1,03455.3%+5.9%+61u0.92u−76
Player props2,28557.9%+13.8%+314u0.96u~−110
Read moneyline carefully: the hit rate is a coin flip. Plus-money picks are now counted as their own class on the live record, apart from the main picks.
AT YOUR SIZE

What past seasons would have meant in dollars (simulated).

NET · ALL 4 SEASONS
+$51,600
2025 SEASON ALONE
+$21,540
AVG PER POSITION
+$10.91
WORST DRAWDOWN
−$3,610

Flat stakes, every position, no picking and choosing. Returns scale with your unit and so do the losing stretches. Past results do not guarantee future results. Books limit accounts that win.

The live record since the season began is the number to judge us by.Open the live record →