how it works · one game, the way we read it · scroll is time

The game moves. The number moves. Know when to take it.

how to read a pick

Six numbers, one rule.

NFLPIT @ CINQ3A
Pittsburgh +7.5
betmgm −118OURS 61%MKT 51%EDGE +10.4STAKE 1.02u14s left

The side and the number. Exactly what to bet, at which book. When several books post the same number, the one shown has the best price; when they post different numbers, the one shown is the one furthest from what the game deserves.

OURS. Our probability that the bet cashes, from our own in-game pricing, calibrated: when we say 61%, it happens about 61% of the time. On the top pick of a ranked board it runs a few points high — treat it as an upper bound, and the record page keeps us honest.

MKT. What the book’s own price says, with the vig removed. The gap between the two is the EDGE, in probability points. On props a bigger edge has meant a better pick; on the board only the biggest edges stand out. We never send an edge inside our own error bar.

The grade. A citation, not a feeling. Hover it and you get the sentence: how many held-out picks of that kind, the return, the interval. A = established across seasons; B = positive every season but not yet resolved on its own; C = provisional, or a caution (a teammate just left the game and our comparables do not know it).

STAKE. Units, proportional to the edge, capped at three. One unit is the percentage of bankroll you set on the Account page; at 1% the worst backtest drawdown is about a third of bankroll. Flat one-unit stakes are what the public record is graded at.

The clock. Some picks carry an expiry: after a change of possession or a touchdown the edge lives about a minute. Late is not a discount; late is gone. Picks without a clock are ranking picks and are good until the number moves.

The rule. One position per market per game. When the number moves after you are in, you get an update on the pick — not a second ticket. Pressing a number that got better is measured at −12.6%, because a live number gets better when the game is going against you. Hedging and middling are vig. Size, don’t hedge.

Log it. Every bet you place, log the price you got and how long it took. Your ledger grades against your own fills; the gap between your table and ours on the Performance page is your obtainability — and it is the number that turns our returns into yours.

To the desk → · The public record